The 9-box grid is a talent review tool that places employees in a three-by-three matrix of performance (low, medium, high) and potential (low, medium, high). It is widely used for succession planning and deciding where to invest in development. Its main weakness is that potential is usually a subjective manager judgment, which invites bias and sticky labels. It works better when potential is defined clearly, backed by evidence and used to plan development, not to rank people.
How the 9-box grid works
High potential, low performance
High potential, medium performance
High potential, high performance
Medium potential, low performance
Medium potential, medium performance
Medium potential, high performance
Low potential, low performance
Low potential, medium performance
Low potential, high performance
The grid traces back to the GE-McKinsey matrix of the 1970s, originally built to compare business units, and was later adapted to people. In a typical talent review, managers rate each person, discuss placements together (calibration) and agree on development or succession actions for each box.
Why the 9-box often fails
- Potential is vague. Without a definition, it becomes "people like me" or "people who are visible."
- Bias. Ratings tend to favor confident, extroverted and similar-to-the-manager employees.
- Sticky labels. Once someone is in a box, it shapes how they're seen for years.
- Point-in-time. A yearly snapshot misses how fast people grow.
- Secrecy. Employees rarely know their placement, so the grid rarely drives their development.
How to use the 9-box better
- Define potential explicitly: for example, learning agility, motivation to grow and capacity for broader scope.
- Use evidence: assessment results, practice performance and specific examples, not impressions.
- Calibrate across managers to reduce individual bias.
- Attach a development action to every box, including core players.
- Revisit placements at least twice a year.
Alternatives to the 9-box
| Alternative | What it does better |
|---|---|
| Skills and behavior profiles | Describe strengths and gaps on many dimensions instead of one label |
| Readiness ratings for specific roles | Answer "ready for what?" instead of abstract potential |
| Continuous development data | Shows growth over time instead of a yearly snapshot |
Cairo replaces the single box with a profile across 80+ behavioral indicators, shown as spectrums, plus a short statement of each person's main strength and next growth area. Each person sees their own profile, and every gap connects to a learning path. See succession planning for how to use this in talent reviews.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 9-box grid?
A talent review tool that plots employees on a three-by-three matrix of performance and potential to guide development and succession decisions.
What are the criticisms of the 9-box?
Potential is often undefined and subjective, ratings can be biased, labels stick, and the grid is usually a yearly snapshot that employees never see.
Should employees know their 9-box placement?
Practices vary. Sharing the development conversation, rather than the label, is usually more useful and less damaging.
What can replace the 9-box?
Evidence-based skills and behavior profiles, role-specific readiness ratings and continuous development data.
Sources
- McKinsey & Company, Enduring ideas: The GE-McKinsey nine-box matrix, McKinsey Quarterly, 2008.
- Silzer, R., & Church, A. H., The pearls and perils of identifying potential, Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 2009.
